Matt Hughes vs. Royce Gracie - Who's gonna win?

[Aodhan]

are we basing this on the Royce we saw more than ten years ago? Isn't it possible that he has gained some skills to make himself more rounded in all that time(especially since he knows he has a fight, and who that fight is against)? I would think he has been aware of Hughes' fighting style and has trained accordingly.

That's what I've been thinking, but he also has 10 years of ageing as well, and 10 or so years out of competition is a lot.

I am picking Royce by submission in the later rounds, just for sentimental factor, he was the first MMA I ever saw or got a chance to meet.

Aodhan

[fallen_milkman]

Hughes by decision. Both are great fighters, but Hughes has an insane "win or die trying" attitude.

[SubGrappler]

are we basing this on the Royce we saw more than ten years ago? Isn't it possible that he has gained some skills to make himself more rounded in all that time(especially since he knows he has a fight, and who that fight is against)? I would think he has been aware of Hughes' fighting style and has trained accordingly.

Im basing this on seeing how he fought in his prime (10 years ago) and his latest fights, including 2 bouts against Yoshida, Akebono, and Tokoro. Royce has been working to try to make himself more well rounded. He showed improved striking ability against Yoshida, and even showed half decent takedowns against Tokoro. Unfortunately, while he is improving in these two aspects of the game, those skills still fall grossly behind the average MMAist. Royce is never going to stun someone with his standup, let alone knock someone out, and people arent very concerned with his takedowns either.

Royce is almost 40, Hughes is a dominant champion in his prime. Hughes is also much more well rounded than Royce is. Royce's jiu jitsu could be listed as the least of his generation (Renzo, Rickson, and Royler all have better jiu jitsu) and he plays a very different guard game. Allow me to elaborate.

BJJ guardwork for MMA and self defense are two different things. The BJJ you see Royce doing is exactly what you want to do in a self defense situation- he stays close, he stays tight, and plays the waiting game- this is exactly what Helio Gracies means when he says that people do jiu jitsu to themselves, and this is why the Gracies (namely Royce) enjoyed fighting under no time limit so often. The advantage of this style of play is that you protect yourself extremely well and never open up to any attacks. The disadvantage is that in being so defensive, its difficult to finish your opponent until he makes a mistake, which could be a time consuming process.

Now, guardwork for MMA has to be entirely different, namely for BJJ fighters who often make their game there. Today's MMA has time limits, frequent standups, and rounds. These are not favorable for a ground game, so what this means is that if you find yourself working from the guard in MMA, you must actively work in order to submit your opponent, sweep him, or escape. Holding your opponent will only result in a penalty (in Pride) or a standup (in UFC). As a result of the rules forcing the guard players to set up their submissions, rather than wait for their opponent, they open themselves up for attack more often. In attacking arms and necks with submissions and attempting sweeps, fighters have to open up space, which leads them to get hit more often. The advantage of this style is that you can end the fight much much quicker, and by constantly attacking your opponent, it becomes like a shotgun effect- fire alot of attempts, and something's going to land. The disadvantage is that you leave yourself vulnerable to being knocked out moreso than the other style of guardwork.

Royce plays his street defense style of guard. If he does not attempt to open up and attack Hughes from the guard, he will have a very difficult time defeating Hughes. There lies the other problem with Royce's style for modern day MMA- With no time limit, you have to soundly defeat your opponent. Since the fight goes to the judges after 3 rounds, Hughes doesnt need to knock Royce out as much as he simply needs to control the fight, which he can do without overexposing himself to a submission.

Right now, I believe the saving grace for Royce is that Hughes has shown a weakness against good guardwork.

I'll be cheering for Royce, but I think the odds are stacked against him.

[Mr. Mike]

stellar argument...the best so far. I enjoyed the valid points more than just hearing 'nah, you're wrong, Royce is gonna get killed!"

Still, I favor experience. Like I said before though, I can't call this one...youth is king, but there's no replacement for experience.

good call though on the takedown issue

[UseoForce]

I don't think Royce has an edge in experience. His early UFC fights were against unsuspecting fighters that knew little of submissions or submission grappling. I credit Royce's wins here more to the element of surprise than with exceptional technique.

Then they had the freakshow thing with Akebono, which, while cool to see one guy destroy another guy half his size, doesn't speak all that much about Royce's skills. It's well documented if you throw a Sumo wrestler in the ring with a good kickboxer or submission fighter the sumo wrestler's toast.

His other fights, well, he lost one to Sakuraba, who's a great fighter but not (IMO) that exceptional. The other was a draw which I here he mostly controlled.

Hughes has fought tons of big-name UFC guys, and I believe, has more total fights under his belt.

[BJJ is 1]

I'm not sure but I think the fight is at 175lbs which makes it non title.

Either way it is the same outcome. we all would like to see the underdog Royce win, but the chances are slim. During the fight, I see this: Hughes takes Royce down, falling in Royces guard where he procedes to work his excelent g&p game while Royce will go for his arm bars, triangles, kimuras, and gulitines from the bottom,which will continue for three rounds with Hughes getting the unanimus decision.

UNLESS: Royce catches either a triangle or arm bar from the bottom, Hughes has been known to get caught in these subs before but always used his super human strength to lift up and slam his opponent to get himself free. However with Royce being one of the best at subs maby he has a slim chance and I mean SLIM.

[SubGrappler]

Either way it is the same outcome. we all would like to see the underdog Royce win, but the chances are slim. During the fight, I see this: Hughes takes Royce down, falling in Royces guard where he procedes to work his excelent g&p game while Royce will go for his arm bars, triangles, kimuras, and gulitines from the bottom,which will continue for three rounds with Hughes getting the unanimus decision.

This is the same kind of fight Im thinking of too. Of course, it is entirely possible that Hughes may decide to play the smart game and keep the fight on his feet, kinda like Rulon Gardner vs Hidehiko Yoshida.

UNLESS: Royce catches either a triangle or arm bar from the bottom, Hughes has been known to get caught in these subs before but always used his super human strength to lift up and slam his opponent to get himself free. However with Royce being one of the best at subs maby he has a slim chance and I mean SLIM.

Thats a vague statement- one of the best at subs compared to who? To MMA fighters in general? If thats the case, then I would agree, but in comparison with other BJJ MMA fighters, Royce is far from having the submissions that these other guys have. Im going to be cheering for Royce as much as possible during the fight, but someone like Renato Verissimo, who I believe is 10 x better than Royce, could not make Hughes tap in their fight.

[Cybren]

I'll admit i haven't been keeping up with the UFC, but when I ran a google video search i found this:

http://video.google.com/videosearch?q=Matt+Hughes+

OUCH.

Royce is up against a hell of a machine.