In two weeks after a little over a year I test for blue or 5th gup, I have at least a year and 4th, 3rd, and 2nd gup before I test for red or 1st gup. After a year minimum at red I will be eligable at instructors approval to test for black. So a little over three years. I believe maturity level and dedication should be a factor in how long it takes. I don't believe a school can guarantee a black belt in a set amount of time. I don't see anything wrong with a school having a program where a student has the chance to earn a blat belt within a given amount of time. If a person is ready their ready, if a person is not ready their not ready it is as simple as that.