Chances of reaching dan grades

[wouldbemaster]

In a different post someone mentioned that only 1:10,000 of becoming a Shodan (blackbelt)! Does anyone have have similar figures/estimates for 2nd dan, 3rd dan, 4th dan, 5th dan, 6th dan etc.

Cheers

[The BB of C]

The people that do martial arts as kids or for generally just short periods of time for God-only-knows-what reasons very much outweigh those who stick with it. That's probably the reason for that statistic.

[Rateh]

I've always heard that 4 or 5 out of 100 reach 1st degree. If it was 1 out of 10,000 then there would be no 1st degrees in the organization I train in, as we have less than 1,000 students.

I think the numbers vary with how good the instruction is, what the expectations are, and what the requirements are for 1st degree, 2nd degree, etc.

I have also heard that the percentage of students that reach 2nd degree after 1st degree is about equal to the percentage of students that reach 1st degree.

So 4-5% reach 1st degree, and then 4-5% of those that reach 1st reach 2nd.

[bushido_man96]

I always learned it as a 1 in 10 rule, and I have seen it go that way.

When I began my training in the ATA in 1993 (I think...), I can remember testing with quite a few peers. For a while, I had from 6 - 10 testing with me, for the same rank, at each testing. But as the ranks went up, the number of the group went down. At our 1st degree testing, there were 3 of us. Later on, the other 2 went on, moved, etc, and as far as I know, neither still train. But, I haven't seen or heard from them in a long time, so perhaps they have got back into it. A pity if they did not, because they both were a lot better and more talented than I am.

[isshinryu5toforever]

I'd say the numbers don't really depend on quality of instruction, they depend on time in rank. The longer you have to wait, the more likely you are to relocate because of a job, family, have your health fail, etc. If it takes you 10 years to reach 1st dan, and another 5 years to reach 2nd dan, that's 15 years. A lot can happen in 15 years. If it takes you 2 years to reach 1st dan and an additional year to reach 2nd dan, well you just reached 2nd dan in 3 years. It's a lot more likely that you'll be in the same place. Is there anything inherently wrong with either system? No. It is something to consider when trying to compile statistics though.

[Rateh]

I don't think if you leave a school and then reach dan at a different one, that you would count in the "didn't make it" group.

You are right that there are more possibilities of things happening if it is a shorter time to dan. I think expectations and requirements will dictate how long it takes the average person in the school to make dan rank, and thus have an effect on how many people make it.

[ps1]

Well...I believe the 1 in 10000 number is a little off the mark to begin with. I would put the number that reach shodan closer to between 2 and 5 percent. That is 2 to 5 out of every hundred students. Especially when you count all of the jr. black belts. It may have been more rare at one time...but not any more. I would guess that the average that reach 2nd degree (nidan) is probably 20 or 30 percent (of those that reach shodan). Of course that's just based on my own experiences in the Kwanmukan and chuan fa systems. In BJJ it's still much lower (at least for now).

[isshinryu5toforever]

I don't think if you leave a school and then reach dan at a different one, that you would count in the "didn't make it" group.

You are right that there are more possibilities of things happening if it is a shorter time to dan. I think expectations and requirements will dictate how long it takes the average person in the school to make dan rank, and thus have an effect on how many people make it.

I wouldn't put them in the didn't make it group either, but not all people keep up with their martial arts training when they move, and if they move often enough, might not find the same system again, and have to start over a few times. It happens.

[Rateh]

I wonder though if the people who don't continue training after a move, would be the same people who would quit before dan grade?

[sensei8]

In a different post someone mentioned that only 1:10,000 of becoming a Shodan (blackbelt)! Does anyone have have similar figures/estimates for 2nd dan, 3rd dan, 4th dan, 5th dan, 6th dan etc.

Cheers

While Shodan has the distinguished honor of being 1:10,000, any Nidan thru Hachidan similar figures/estimates would be staggering...or at least they should be.

"Recognized" would have to be the key. And even with that, "recognized" would have to be understood/agreeded upon first, but, I don't see that happening in today's martial arts politics. Any available figure/estimates would be a puffed-up amount. Why? An especially acute problem is the large number of high-ranking black belts whose only achievement has come through self-promotion of rank. Having said that, any figure/estimate would only be an half-hearted assumption, at best.