Carjacking Scenarios

[KarateGeorge]

Under what circumstances do people have to deal with a physical assault beginning while they're seated AT ALL? I've only known this to happen in bars when the victim is not aware and/or drunk. If you get sucker punched when you're sitting down, awareness and hanging around in bad bars is your downfall, not neglecting to train defenses against it.

I like to think of it this way. People buy various kinds of insurance with the hopes that they don't have to use it. People train for various emergencies, such as tornado drills, fire drills, etc. with the hopes that they never have to be in a real one. In fact, the likelihood of someone having to escape a burning office building are pretty slim. They still devote time to preparing for it. No, they don't spend a large portion of their time training for it, but they have a plan and know what to do should the slim chance that it could occur actually happen.

Do I expect to get carjacked in my lifetime? I live in a good neighborhood, so the likelihood is fairly low. As a result, should I spend a significant amount of time training for it? Not really. Should I pretend like carjackings never happen and not prepare myself at all to know how to respond in the event that one should actually happen to me? No. One should be at least somewhat prepared for the various ways of being attacked. To take the stance of "it could never happen to me" is a mistake too often made by many people throughout life, and not just when it comes to the situation of carjackings. I don't want to be overconfident...you don't know what could happen to you. I'd rather be ready for the the unexpected.

[tallgeese]

cymry, I'll have to respectfully agree to disagree. Train however you want obviously, but i'll keep the workst case scenario in mind from time to time. There are too many variables in any situation to say what will and won't be useful.

[cymry]

Shall I repeat myself?

Under what circumstances do people have to deal with a physical assault beginning while they're seated AT ALL? I've only known this to happen in bars when the victim is not aware and/or drunk. If you get sucker punched when you're sitting down, awareness and hanging around in bad bars is your downfall, not neglecting to train defenses against it.

I only care about something statistically significant. You might have to deal with a knife attack while skydiving for all you know - it's not impossible of course, but with prevention and awareness the chances of it happening are infintesimally small.

[tallgeese]

People sit all the time. Cars, trains, parks, home. You could be part of a domestic incident, at home of someone else where you don't know everyone. Seems that I've heard or see all of these.

Granted, you'd rather be up if you saw it coming, but things aren't always ideal.

I'll repeat myself, worse case scenario. Train how you like, we're just repeating ourselves here.

[DWx]

Have to jump in here, crmry, I can think of tons of scenarios that might happen whilst seated and whilst not in a bar. They obviously won't happen to everyone but like tallgeese said better to be prepared than not to be. Car jacking is obviously one, how about sitting on a park bench and someone tries to mug you? or on the bus? or at a football game or concert, and some guy picks on you? or say in a fight you get pushed down so you are actually in a seated position now? The whole fight doesn't have to take place from a seated position but even if a portion of it does I think some time, however limited, spent drilling from a seated position is going to be beneficial.

[KarateGeorge]

According to the Bureau of Justice Statistics, carjackings occur roughly in the range of 2 per 10,000 people, with 93% of them occurring in urban or sub-urban areas and a weapon being used in 74% of them.

So, yes, the likelihood of being carjacked is slim. Is it impossible? No. Can a proper awareness of my surroundings limit the chances of it happening? Yes. Do the person remain seated through the whole attack? Doubtful.

Though the chances of being attacked while seated are unlikely, they're not unheard of. Training for being mugged while skydiving is an absurdity. However, being carjacked or mugged while on a bus or park bench happens frequently enough to be considered a realistic situation. Common? No. Realistic? Yes. Therefore, it's something I'd be better off being prepared for.

An awareness level is part of that training. The best trained person is also well aware of what's going on around them and in many cases is able to avoid a confrontation by just not putting themselves in the situation that would open them up for the situation. Being able to avoid a confrontation is the best way to defend oneself. However, if that's worked 100% of the time, then why train for self-defense in the first place? Since it's not 100% foolproof, I'd rather be the person who knows how to prevent getting in those situations in the first place, but also the one who knows how to defend against it should the situation still happen to occur.

[cymry]

And to what demographic do those people belong? I assume that a low-income white male in his late teens to early twenties is more likely to be a victim than an upper-middle class woman in her 40s.

As for buses, any CCTV footage I've seen of such attacks invariably begins with a verbal prelude. The victim in such cases is failing to respond out of fear, understandably so.

[the phoenix]

In all seriousness, how likely is the average person to be a victim of a carjacking in their lifetime? Obviously this depends on where you live, but I'm pretty sure if you're not cruising in South Central LA or Johannesburg that your chances of suffering such an attack are tiny.

Perhaps the chances are tiny but the repercussions can be HUGE!

And as far as demographics go, I am a 35 year old, white woman and was in a VERY upscale location when my vehicle was taken.

It can never happen, happens all the time.

[KarateGeorge]

And to what demographic do those people belong? I assume that a low-income white male in his late teens to early twenties is more likely to be a victim than an upper-middle class woman in her 40s.

Agreed. I'm not saying the likelihood of being carjacked is high, but it is not an improbable scenario. People do get carjacked often enough to warrant taking note of it. The U.S. population is roughly 300,000,000. So at a rate of 2 per 10,000 people, that's roughly 60,000 carjackings in the U.S. each year. In the U.S. in 2007 all violent crimes combined occurred at a rate of 47 per 10,000 people.

I'm not disagreeing with you that it's uncommon. But it's not unrealistic to expect that it could happen. Because it's got a low likelihood of happening, should a large portion of time be devoted to training for it? The answer for most people is no, there's not much need to train extensively in situations of this nature. But should the possibility be completely ignored? No, these types of attacks can and do happen and if one is going to learn how to defend themselves, they should at least have a rudimentary understanding of how to respond to such a situation. Even if they don't train heavily in that scenario, combined with normal defense training by adding even just a little thought behind how you would respond if you found yourself in that situation goes a long way in preparing yourself.

Can I reduce my chances of being a victim by staying out of the wrong neighborhood? I'm fortunate enough to live in a nice neighborhood, so for me the answer is most likely, though crime can and does happen in nice neighborhoods too. But not everybody has the fortune of being able to avoid the more dangerous neighborhoods.

[cymry]

And as far as demographics go, I am a 35 year old, white woman and was in a VERY upscale location when my vehicle was taken.

If I recall you were jacked because of the contents of your vehicle. Can you clarify this? I assume your case was pre-meditated and as such is an exceptional.