How Many Black Belts!?

[kivikala]

I've pondered this from time to time and in light that there is no reliable or accurate source for these statistics I've had to SWAG them myself.

IF we look at number of currently active students which we we can start to extrapolate number. I am going to start based on some US figures and guesstimates.

Ok from what I could find, there are about 15,000 (give or take) "martial arts" schools in the US. If we are generous and average the number of students per school at 50 we get 750,000 students (at this moment in time). That number seems rather small to me, but I'm going to see where it gets us.

Ok if there are indeed 15,000 schools in the US logic tells me there's got to be at least 15,000 blackbelts. Adding to that the percentage of student who will make it to blackbelt we get...

Statistically only about 1% ever make it to 1st Black so that generated a number of 7,500 new black belts in the US. Add this to the 15,000 we get 22,500 blackbelts. Even if we allow say an average of 3 or 4 blackbelts per school, the number for the US will still be well below 60,000.

The fun now become comparing it to world figures. IF lets say the US comprises say... 30% of the world MA population (based on what I see as popular) that implies the world-wide black belt population is only somewhere around 200,000! This just can't be right.

Higher ranks I think are just statistic blips and represent noise on any charts so I am not even going to count them.

So holy cow, that's not many black belts. We could double, triple, even quadruple the number and it is still very insignificant. Even being super generous world population of (active) blackbelts would never even approach 1,000,000. !?!?

How's that for a SWAG?

[darkness]

You know, the number of people that have access to a dojo, any kind of dojo, is a very, very small amount. How many dojos do you think china has? Africa, the whole continent? South America? It's easy to forget, but how we live, any of you out there with a computer, do not live the way the majority of the people on this earth live.

[younwhagrl]

wow that is really interesting! In our sytem when we reach black belt we get certificated made by Grandmaster Han himself, and it has what # black belt you are in the system, and my instructor said when he tested for black it was like # 345 or something then when he tested for 1st dan it was less than that, then when he tested for 2nd dan it was even lower! So i guess that shows how many people actually stay around and progress beyond black belt.

[Why_Worry]

Thats in yoru style alone. While that shwos that there really arent alot of black belts, some people might just read that wrong jsut cause some people can be really not smart but there are probably like hundreds of different styles in the world with many black belts, but still that is a good example of if there is like 1000 or even 10,000 or more black belts per style, its still not very much at all when compared to the rest of the world.

[younwhagrl]

Yeah..that's just the style I am in...we have over 1000 black belts now in our system.

[White Warlock]

hmm... who cares?

Really.. so many martial art systems don't even hand out black belts, and there are plenty of practitioners that are more than qualified to hold many black belts, but do not have even one. A belt is a stupid little measuring tool that so many people treat as some sort of holy grail. It's not, it's merely an ego-gratifying piece of cloth, worn about your waist or hung over your mantle.

As to statistics, they serve whomever provides them. As to how many people practice the martial arts... absolutely no way to know, and as i indicated earlier, not all present belts as rank.

So... really.... who cares? Study and develop, and stop worrying about what everyone else is doing.

[Steve_K]

hmm... who cares?

Really.. so many martial art systems don't even hand out black belts, and there are plenty of practitioners that are more than qualified to hold many black belts, but do not have even one. A belt is a stupid little measuring tool that so many people treat as some sort of holy grail. It's not, it's merely an ego-gratifying piece of cloth, worn about your waist or hung over your mantle.

As to statistics, they serve whomever provides them. As to how many people practice the martial arts... absolutely no way to know, and as i indicated earlier, not all present belts as rank.

So... really.... who cares? Study and develop, and stop worrying about what everyone else is doing.

I'm not worried as to how many "black belts" there are in the world, I am just using that as a guideline to find how many truly skilled martial artists exist. It's like asking how many people have a driver's license to determine how many people there are over 16.

and those who wear a black belt to boost their ego, never deserved it in the first place.

We don't need to wax intellecutal and philosophize about what a black belt is and means, and judge the character of those who have earned them and are proud to wear them.

and by the way, I care

[manuelito]

what about ma systems that do not use a belt system???

where do they fall in this catagory???

but imo i think i think the % is higher if you only include practioners of ma versus people who have not.

[White Warlock]

I'm not worried as to how many "black belts" there are in the world, I am just using that as a guideline to find how many truly skilled martial artists exist.

Well, if i may be so bold... that's a horrible guideline. There are far more 'unqualified,' 'unskilled' black belts running around than 'skilled' ones. It is a sorry state, but it is an accepted fact.

It's like asking how many people have a driver's license to determine how many people there are over 16.

Well, considering drivers licenses differ per State, and per Nation, i would say you would end up with unsatisfactory results there as well.

and those who wear a black belt to boost their ego, never deserved it in the first place.

True, but that is the reference you were looking for.

We don't need to wax intellecutal and philosophize about what a black belt is and means, and judge the character of those who have earned them and are proud to wear them.

hmm... proud to wear them? doesn't that have some reference to 'ego?'

I'm messing a little, but you see my point i hope. A black belt is not even remotely a reliable reference utility to determine the amount of 'skilled' practitioners. But, even if it were, it is a shot in the dark to try and speculate just how many there are, especially when you consider how many countries there are, the dynamics of demographics, the amount of systems out there (and, of those, how many provide belt rankings), the actual qualifications of said belt holders (there are quite a few people that gave themselves black belts, or were 'given' black belts by friends/associates), etc.

It's a shot in the dark. Worse, it's a shot in the dark with a spitwad.

and by the way, I care

Didn't mean to be offensive with that comment. It's just that there is far too much black belt idolizing going on in the martial arts community and it irks me as much as the fact there are unqualified people obtaining said black belts, and irks me almost as much as the dismissiveness presented to non-belt skilled practitioners.

/tangent

As you may or may not know already, i don't have a belt and have thusfar refused to obtain one over the past 25+ years. Oh sure, i've been 'handed' belts, but i consider them tokens of respect, and not actual earned diplomas. The thing is, i repeatedly bump into people who would rather study under a 3 year practitioner holding a black belt, than they would me... without even experiencing what i have to offer. Their loss, i'll grant you that, but it still irks me.

/tangent off

[Steve_K]

I am aware of your official standing as an unranked martial artist, and I respect that absolutely. I myself am reluctant to accept these three year practitioners holding a black belt as truly skilled. I personally care more about how long someone has trained. Obviously, if I were to be challenged by a 30 year practicing 1st dan black belt, I wouldn't assume I could defeat him because I myself am a 1st dan black belt (practicing seven years) However, it is my beliefe that counting these unskilled three year black belts in the statistic, can make up for truly skilled, unranked martial artists, which I'm sure there are a lot of, including kung fu practitioners.

In response to your statement about "people who would rather study under a 3 year practitioner holding a black belt, than they would me" It can be difficult to put trust in someone with no proof of experience. Granted a black belt isn't always proof enough, but it is at least some kind of a device with which someone can measured, along with their years of experience and the reputation of the school they trained in, and as for the person who would rather train under a three year black belt, I can't say that they are using good judgement either.

As for pride being a reference to egotism. Having pride isn't egotism, pride is a sense of self importance and esteem, egotism is an exaggerated, and excessive sense of self importance, closer to the point of feeling superior to others.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying all this because I LOVE the concept of ranking, and think that someone isn't skilled if they don't have a black belt. However as an instructor, it is good to have some form of researchable credentials such as your certificate and the reputation of the school you were trained in. Wouldn't you rather be treated by a medical doctor from Julliard than a doctor with a diploma from an unknown school in an unfamliar country? Like in "The Cider House Rules" (if you've seen it) It is entirely possible for someone to be fully qualified, in the movie's case as a doctor, but with no documentation of instruction and only the person's word to go by.

There are plenty of self proclaimed "unranked, skilled martial artists" who are just jerks that learned a little of this art here, and little of that art there and claim they have developed their own system, and call it Jiu Box Fu, when in fact they are just guys who cannot commit to steady training under an instructor and think that they already know all about fighting. No I'm not accusing you (White Warlock) of this, but people who ARE like that are a disgrace to the martial arts just as much as those "McDojo" black belts.

When I started this topic, I was only curious.